Setback for U.S. Financial Policy
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Recently, the global financial landscape has witnessed a significant upheaval, with China's countermeasures against the United States' financial and trade wars taking center stageOn December 5th, the U.Sdollar experienced a massive sell-off, plummeting by 650 points in just one day, only stabilizing after hitting a thirty-day moving averageConcurrently, the A-share market in China rebounded sharply, indicating a robust recovery amidst this turbulence.
The dramatic decline of the dollar on December 5th, 2023, which fell by 0.63%, reflects a confluence of compounding influences such as expectations surrounding U.Snon-farm payroll data, structural changes in the global economy, and an intensifying "de-dollarization" trendThis downturn sent shockwaves through the global financial market, illuminating the vulnerabilities that the dollar currently faces.
The weakening dollar is not solely attributable to domestic economic uncertainty in the U.S., but also stems from diverging international expectations regarding the dollar's future status
As central banks around the world begin to actively manage their currency exchange rates and divest from dollar holdings, the global market share of the dollar appears increasingly threatened.
Notably, the proportion of the Chinese yuan in cross-border payments has been rising steadilyAs of the first quarter of 2024, the yuan officially surpassed the dollar in cross-border transactions for the first time, marking a significant deepening of the de-dollarization processThis shift reflects broader movements within the global economy as countries seek alternatives to the dollar-dominated financial system.
In response to ongoing trade and financial skirmishes with the U.S., China has deployed targeted countermeasuresRecently, the Chinese government announced a new policy draft stipulating that domestically produced goods would receive a 20% price discount in government procurement
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This initiative aims to bolster the competitiveness of Chinese products, particularly in high-tech sectors, thereby reducing reliance on imports.
This policy adjustment goes beyond mere economic recalibration; it represents a robust counteraction to U.Sattempts at blockade and trade restrictionsThe U.Shas employed high tariffs and technology export controls in a bid to stifle China's manufacturing and technology sectorsIn contrast, China's policy support encourages domestic replacements with the hope of surpassing U.Stechnological advancements, especially in cutting-edge fields such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
Alongside enhancing support for high-tech enterprises, China is also strengthening the integration and layout of its capital marketsRecent merger plans involving leading Chinese securities firms like Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities are underway, aiming to create local financial giants capable of competing with global titans such as Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank
Such strategies not only enhance China’s international competitiveness but also infuse the global capital flow with a stronger Chinese presence.
According to reports from top investment banks like UBS, while the dollar retains its dominant position in global finance in the short term, the clear trend toward de-dollarization is unmistakableChina leads this movement, accelerating the internationalization of the yuanThe yuan's rise in global payments in March 2024 was a watershed moment, symbolizing significant shifts in the global currency landscape.
The motivations behind the de-dollarization trend are grounded in widespread discontent with U.Seconomic policies and a reassessment of risks arising from dependence on the dollarWhile high interest rates have helped sustain the dollar’s strength, they also precipitated capital flight globally, prompting countermeasures from other nations
Countries like Russia, Brazil, and Argentina are embracing the yuan for cross-border payments, demonstrating a willingness to pivot away from the dollar.
Furthermore, Russia's collaboration with China in energy and military sectors provides practical experience and market demand for the yuan’s internationalizationThe yuan's ascent within the global payment system foreshadows a future where China can command greater influence internationally, equipping it with tools to effectively counter U.Sfinancial sanctions.
However, despite the yuan's gradual rise in international payments, several challenges remain on its path to rival the dollarFor one, China’s capital markets still exhibit limited openness and liquidityAlthough the Chinese stock and bond markets progressively open up, attracting international capital requires enhancing market transparency and aligning rules with global standards.
Moreover, the international acceptance of the yuan is constrained by its current degree of internationalization
Even though progress has been made in promoting yuan-denominated settlements and payments, the U.Sfinancial system continues to dominate global capital flows across key sectors, including oil and gold marketsTo significantly disrupt this hegemony, China must foster robust financial innovations and engage in cross-border cooperation.
Under the aegis of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is gradually promoting the yuan's internationalization through infrastructure development and cross-border tradeThis strategic endeavor creates additional opportunities for the yuan while paving the way for further economic ascendance in China.
In summary, China is initiating a profound transformation within the financial and economic landscapesThrough flexible policy adjustments and breakthroughs in technological innovation, the nation is slowly reducing its dependence on the dollar while reshaping the global economic order
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